Preseason Rankings
South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#79
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#193
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#51
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 4.8% 4.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.5% 24.7% 5.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.9% 20.1% 3.7%
Average Seed 8.9 8.9 10.5
.500 or above 71.7% 72.3% 33.0%
.500 or above in Conference 57.9% 58.3% 31.1%
Conference Champion 6.7% 6.8% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.6% 15.7%
First Four5.5% 5.6% 1.2%
First Round21.7% 22.0% 4.9%
Second Round10.5% 10.6% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 3.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight1.1% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 6
Quad 24 - 45 - 10
Quad 36 - 312 - 12
Quad 46 - 118 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 77-54 99%    
  Nov 10, 2019 101   Boston College W 72-66 69%    
  Nov 13, 2019 253   IUPUI W 79-64 91%    
  Nov 21, 2019 107   Wofford W 72-66 69%    
  Nov 25, 2019 109   Loyola Chicago W 64-61 60%    
  Dec 02, 2019 102   Furman W 71-65 69%    
  Dec 06, 2019 193   Dartmouth W 75-63 85%    
  Dec 15, 2019 254   Drexel W 81-66 90%    
  Dec 18, 2019 34   Utah St. L 69-74 34%    
  Dec 21, 2019 18   Florida St. L 67-74 28%    
  Dec 29, 2019 163   Florida Atlantic W 73-63 80%    
  Jan 01, 2020 89   @ SMU L 66-68 45%    
  Jan 04, 2020 73   Connecticut W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 07, 2020 203   @ East Carolina W 74-68 70%    
  Jan 12, 2020 26   Memphis L 77-80 41%    
  Jan 18, 2020 94   @ Central Florida L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 21, 2020 58   Wichita St. W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 26, 2020 32   @ Houston L 63-71 25%    
  Jan 29, 2020 242   @ Tulane W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 01, 2020 94   Central Florida W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 08, 2020 26   @ Memphis L 74-83 23%    
  Feb 12, 2020 32   Houston L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 15, 2020 100   Tulsa W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 20, 2020 58   @ Wichita St. L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 23, 2020 73   @ Connecticut L 70-74 39%    
  Feb 26, 2020 203   East Carolina W 77-65 85%    
  Mar 01, 2020 83   @ Temple L 70-73 42%    
  Mar 03, 2020 29   Cincinnati L 63-66 41%    
  Mar 07, 2020 89   SMU W 69-65 64%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.2 2.2 0.9 0.1 8.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.5 3.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.0 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 4.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 4.8 3.7 0.6 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.5 3.6 0.7 0.0 10.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 3.8 3.1 0.7 0.0 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.4 0.6 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.8 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.6 5.7 8.1 9.9 11.2 11.6 11.6 10.3 8.6 6.5 4.6 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 89.6% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
15-3 68.5% 2.0    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 42.1% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.2% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 39.4% 60.6% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 99.9% 35.5% 64.4% 3.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 1.3% 99.3% 25.6% 73.7% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
15-3 2.9% 97.2% 30.2% 67.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.0%
14-4 4.6% 88.4% 19.7% 68.8% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 85.6%
13-5 6.5% 73.8% 15.0% 58.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.7 69.2%
12-6 8.6% 55.2% 10.6% 44.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.9 49.9%
11-7 10.3% 30.2% 6.6% 23.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.2 25.3%
10-8 11.6% 18.1% 3.8% 14.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.5 14.9%
9-9 11.6% 5.5% 1.3% 4.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.0 4.2%
8-10 11.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.0 0.6%
7-11 9.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.1%
6-12 8.1% 0.7% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
5-13 5.7% 0.3% 0.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7
4-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.2% 2.2
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 24.5% 5.8% 18.7% 8.9 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.8 5.6 2.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 75.5 19.9%